It was just after the recent catastrophe of a debate, and I needed a hearty laugh rather desperately. Thanks goes, then, to Jacobin magazine for providing one:
They wanted Biden to step down, and oh! Would you look at that? Who could possibly step into the void and rescue us but our VERY OWN DAYDREAM OF A HERO, BERNIE SANDERS!
It took me a while to realize that they were very much not joking—which only made the joke all the more delicious. (Coming back to it now, I’m not sure how—in any universe—the Senator from Vermont is in any way “tanned” in any event.) Thank you Chris Freiman for compounding the humor:
All the wishcasting is reckless and hilarious, and that what makes it so fun. When there’s a little chaos, we all retreat to what could happen—but what we mean is “what would happen in my fantasy dream land.” Everyone was doing it. The right was measuring the oval office curtains while the left imagining the second coming of Karl Marx in the form of Gavin Newsom.
Everyone was excited because *possibilities!* and rational thinking was down the drain.
First, to reality.
Three things. In order. Call them principles if you like—on why wishcasting is mostly only good for laughs:
Biden isn’t dropping out. Biden surrogates are wildly understating how bad the debate was. But writers, pundits, and journos are all wildly overstating how bad the debate was. Why? Because of incentives. Party loyalists have one job (loyalty) and pundits also have one job (clicks) and they’re both going to do what it takes to get them. It’s exciting! It’s interesting! It’s fun! And it’s really, really unlikely. Why won’t Biden drop out? The incentives are all wrong. His inner circle will tell him to stay, and he will tell them he wants to stay. That’s partly weird party structure and partly awkward loyalty to an elderly president, but much of it is rational: any change this late in the game puts the left’s presidential race in jeopardy. Yes, worse than running Biden. It would also energize (that is to say, enrage) the right-wing, many of whom have been calling this for a while. It’s just too risky. A good many people are going to stay the course and keep ridin’ with Biden, praying the whole time that momentum will matter more than performance. They aren’t completely nuts: the bar is now on the floor. Forgive the funereal humor, but Biden can stumble over said bar by surpassing expectations as lofty as “continue breathing.” Biden’s night was bad, terrible, and very, very not good—but there are months left in the campaign. He can still win. Even if he doesn’t, he is unlikely to move because of the incentives of campaign politics. I hope I’m wrong. I want Biden to drop out. I want Trump to lose, and Biden is not my best bet. But I think most pundits underestimate institutional inertia.
You Won’t Win at Playing Games. Wishcasting lays real intents bare. The NYT has called on Biden to step down. I have yet to decide whether the NYT is offering their editorial in good faith or not. You see, there is a very strong case for calling on Biden to step away from his campaign: the goal is not Biden, the goal is simply not-Trump. I can respect the hard-nosed position. And if that’s what’s going on—genuinely—then I’m on board. But there’s another possibility, most obviously brought to mind by the absurdity of Jacobin’s wishcasting: this was the plan all along. In this possibility, the NYT thinks they can quietly sneak a Gavin Newsom into the presidential race, and trade out Biden and no one will notice. Well, I will notice. Indeed, I will be furious. If this is their game, they will have validated every whackadoodle conspiracy theory that I have rejected out of hand, and nothing makes me more irritable than making the conspiracy theorists right. If NYT (or others) are just seeing this as a chance to install their preferred potentate, then the right will rage with fury—and they will be right to do so. There is no simpler way to enshrine an angry right-wing for two political generations than to play games with the electorate because, and this is key, the man running on populist resentment is not named Joe, he’s named Donald. If this is all some kind of 3d chess then it necessarily implies that the common man is a pawn in a big game—and I hope this should be obvious by now, but people don’t like it when elites play games with the common people. This will blow up in their faces.
The Pound of Flesh. There are a lot of people talking about “losing in November.” I’m not quite sure they understand. Rather, the party just lost November in June. I’m not saying that the race is over—I’m saying that the first match was disastrous. If there is going to be a change, then it had better come with a clear shout of “touche” by the judges. Call it a loss. Own the loss. The right is fuming (sometimes for good reasons, sometimes because that’s just kinda the vibe these days). If you would like to see MAGA entrenched as an inter-generational political powerhouse, by all means, try your sleight-of-hand. What’s the difference between reckless wishcasting and serious politicking? In this case, it’s paying a cost. It’s the difference between sleight-of-hand and strategic surrender. Pay the pound of flesh. Then we can talk about how to move forward.
Now that I’ve condemned irresponsible wishcasting, let me engage in some.
After all, for all that it’s not useful or called for, it’s *really, really fun*.
Three stories.
Who Can High Schoolers Trust? When I was in high school, the trophy for the spirit week competition had to be kept very secret. Students would steal it, break into offices, even start fights to get the stupid spirit stick. Was there anyone who could be trusted with the spirit stick?!
Yes, actually. The seminary teachers.It’s a weird little idiosyncrasy of the Pioneer corridor (Utah, Arizona, Idaho, and parts of Nevada and Wyoming etc.) that there are a sufficient number of Latter-day Saint youth to justify building a “seminary” next to public schools. Students in 9-12 will get a period off and can walk over to seminary where they get some religious instruction from employees of The Church of Jesus Christ.
I can remember one day seeing a friend in my Salt Lake City high school who I didn’t realize was a coreligionist. “David!” I said, “I didn’t realize you were a Latter-day Saint!” He looked at me and smirked. “I’m not. But your bathrooms are clean.”
I couldn’t argue his logic. I welcomed him most heartily to the land of clean bathrooms and trustworthy seminary teachers. Not everyone agreed with my faith, and only some of us were taught by seminary teachers, but everyone TRUSTED them. So they kept the spirit stick. And no one stole from them.
Because they were the fair arbiters.Mormon Country. I work at BYU-Idaho. We have a partnership with a school district in Texas. They wanted good teachers who loved kids. One of them looked at the others in a senior executive district leadership meeting and said "If we want great teachers who care about kids, maybe we should try Mormon country." He googled, he found BYUI, and we had a partnership within a week. We love that partnership. It’s a miracle, in the very honest sense of the word. They are (primarily) conservative protestants from the US South. We are Latter-day Saints from the Intermountain West. We get along dandy.
Optimal Strategy. Imagine that I told you I’m thinking of a number between one and a hundred. Suppose, further, that only two people have guessed, and you are the third (and final) one to make a guess. Their guesses were 3 and 14 respectively. There is a strategy that ensures the highest possible likelihood of winning. Not a guaranteed win, but an optimal strategy. That strategy is to guess the number 15. In other words, take the number line and go ever so slightly to the right and you will have maximized your chances of success.
What do the three stories have in common?
The Dems are unlikely to win. Their best bet is probably to hold the course and keep ridin’ with Biden. I suspect that Trump will trounce Biden come November. Note: my pessimism is a pessimistic take on what is likely their best possible strategy.
There are other options.
They could open the nomination at convention. In a fit of back-room deals, they could pick a new nominee. Someone on the left who could actually win.
Maybe. I doubt it, but maybe.
Alternatively, electors could walk away from their requirements in the electoral college and fulfill the dream of the founders by voting for someone who could be a good president. I quite like this option—except that the current structure of the house and senate nearly guarantee that Trump would win. He has a slim majority, and that’s all it would take.
Now this is why my wishcasting is a little more forgivable. Because I think it actually has some small correspondence to reality (in addition to a correspondence to my political fantasy).
Imagine if Democrats do something noble.
If the Dems realize they’ve lost already—which I suspect they really have—they might be willing to buy an insurance policy. They are not going to win. They can give up that dream. They can engage in strategic surrender.
Imagine it going like this.
The Dems nominate a center-right leader. They find a centrist democrat for veep. They push the ticket to engage on bipartisan issues and trust-restoration. I’d pick Spencer Cox—a serious governor who is good on policy, pleasant on tone, and overall really happy. The man (and his head!) are squeaky clean. In terms of electoral success, it would take little more than him standing with a sign that says “still haven’t made jokes about grabbing women by the p***y” every day for 100 days or so until election day. Cox is sharp. He’s funny. He’s a dad, and he has the jokes to prove it. He’s the perfect brand of Mormon-friendly (the kind that is so genuine it gives people from outside The Pioneer Cooridor the heeby-jeebies).
There is no better contrast to Trump than a man who gives off the most “hip-Latter-day-Saint-bishop” vibes in the world. And there’s no better foil for Biden than the guy who is 48 but looks perpetually 14.
He is, in a phrase, the seminary teacher keeping the spirit stick. He’s the guy hiding away in Mormon country just trying to keep his state functioning.
There’s no win for the dems here. They wish they could vote for 100. But they can’t. They lost that battle. They can’t even try for 50. So instead, they settle for 15 because at least there is a win in there.
I know the Dems will balk. The wishcasting is fierce. Why not nominate someone on the far left? Or at least the center left? Again, with emphasis: someone in the administration knew that Joe Biden was in this state. Someone knew and pretended it was all fine. Axios is now reporting that Biden has good hours early in the morning and fades around 4 PM (4:00 POST-MERIDIAN). Despite this—and calls from people all over the political spectrum to not be stupid—they voted to go with a good, decent, and very old man.
They gambled.
They lost.
I believe that decision was worse than merely mistaken political strategy. It veers into the category of moral error. Go read some of what The Free Press and Bari Weiss are saying about it—because they are right. The populist resentment that Trump thrives on is not going to be made better by the elites picking a new candidate in a backroom deal—all while they handily neglect to address all the people who rightly raised the issue of Biden’s age only to be tsk-tsk’d away with subtle implications of ageism.
Let me say again, this time with emphasis: Pound. Of. Flesh.
Besides, they can’t pull it off. None of the most likely candidates poll well against Trump anyhow. They aren’t going to win. Even Mitt Romney is too unpopular among right-leaning voters (and some on the far left).
Again, this is a strategic surrender. It’s an armistice or a treaty or whatever metaphor you would like that allows the left to preserve some dignity and still end the phantom that is currently devouring American politics. It’s not about winning—it’s about making sure Trump loses. What is the win? A center-right that isn’t built around Trump.
The end of MAGA as a movement.
THAT is where the nobility lies. President Biden steps down because he wants to do what is best for the country. He does the right thing even though it ends his political career. What greater contrast with Donald Trump than stepping back from power when it is better for the country? Then, the dems, rather than electing some second-string pinch-hitter, owns the loss. Mistakes were made, and it’s time for accountability.
Strategic retreat time.
Put Cox on the ticket—or someone like him. Make it Mr. Chief Justice or Neil Gorsuch or Arthur Brooks or Condie Rice or any of a thousand decent Republicans who are hard-working and honest and actually care about governing. Then, let them win. Push the left to support the person on the new, better, nobler right. Quit with the nonsense of “they want to put you back in chains.” Own the ridiculousness that got us here. Get someone like Cox who will be willing to go after the nuts in his own party. See the good in the noblest version of your opponent. Talk it up. Differentiate between good, bad, and worse.
Then, campaign against Trump and for the right-wing good guy. Explain that the highest partisan devotion is occasionally to vote for the most noble opponent.
Tear the right in twain. Know you will lose.
But do it all because you will get to build an opponent—a right-wing—that is a little better and little nobler and a little less built on resentment than MAGA.
A new right. Free market. Optimistic. Civil. Decent. Pro-immigrant. About governance. Responsible.
But alas.
Perhaps I shouldn’t wishcast so irresponsibly.
It will undeniably make me upset when my expectations don’t match up with reality.